Lots of folks have asked me this week who I thought was going to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship that culminates this weekend at the Homestead Miami Speedway. Let me put forth my thoughts.

First, understand that this is racing. No matter how much thought one puts into their prognostication it must be remembered that motorsports by its very nature is chaotic. And when a Championship is this tight, little things can have a profound effect on the outcome. A hot dog wrapper on a front grill, a piece of debris or an untimely caution can ruin this for any of the three involved. That said, here’s my breakdown of what each driver faces and what they need to do to win it all.

DENNY HAMLIN

Denny has run fast all year and has pretty much avoided the emotional outbursts that have plagued him in the past. He has the points lead by a mere 15 points coming into Homestead, a race that he won last year. That would make him a strong favorite it would seem, right?

Well, not so fast.

Remember that this race was run under the lights last year while this year’s Ford 400 will go green shortly after 1PM local. The notes he and crew chief Mike Ford brought with them last year may lead them in the wrong direction if they lean too heavily on them. Another kink in the armor came last week at Phoenix when a costly fuel mileage flub let Johnson back into a title hunt that Hamlin was in position to put out of reach. Hamlin’s unchecked, emotional reaction after the race was there for everyone to see, including his competitors. He and Ford have to hold it all together, make smart choices in practice and pray that the mechanical failures that have plagued the Joe Gibbs Racing Team from time to time this season remain at bay.

JIMMIE JOHNSON

Everyone seems to forget that last year Jimmie Johnson put his Lowes Chevy on the pole for this race. While his average finishes at Homestead are no match for Harvick or Hamlin, bear in mind that he has never had to really race for this championship since 2004. He usually coasts at this event, running a safe, conservative race designed to bring home the cup. Johnson and his master crew chief Chad Knauss have to up their game here for a change.

The wild cards for the #48, if there are any, are in the pit crew. The much talked about pit crew swap with the #24 team of Jeff Gordon has paid dividends so far, but racing Karma, if one believes in such things, is bound to rebound a little at some point. But in the end, we’re talking about a 4-Time Champion  and his 4-Time Champion crew chief, two of the best in the business. Their minds are strong and their emotions level. It will simply be a matter of if they can come into this track and find the handle they need to be competitive when they never have had to before. I don’t think there are many race fans who doubt their ability to do just that.

KEVIN HARVICK

Kevin Harvick fans have to hope something goes wrong with both Hamlin and Johnson. It’s as simple as that. Harvick has the best average finish at this track, that we know. It kinda fits his style, a banked track that rewards under-driving the turns. In many ways, though, that kind of neutralizes one of his strong suits. Harvick is a master of being aggressive behind the wheel when he has to, but this track doesn’t reward that kind of driving. But if it gets down to it and it’s the three of them in the hunt and there’s a late restart or something like that, count on Harvick to do anything it takes to pass as many cars as possible. Checkers or wreckers, as they say.

In the end though, Harvick is a long shot. He can’t afford to qualify badly and spend half the race working his way up through the field as is his norm. His pit crew must be uncharacteristically flawless.

But if it were to come down to fuel mileage? Oh boy…

INTANGIBLES

- The Toyotas were real fast here last year, but the Chevy power seems to have really stretched its legs on the intermediate  tracks this year. I am concerned that the Toyota engines are going to be really “up against the chip” trying to keep up. Remember what happened to Hamlin’s teammate Kyle Busch at the 1.5 mile Texas Motor Speedway earlier in the Chase? I’m afraid mostly of Hamlin blowing his motor in a similar fashion…

- The Roush Fords will be a factor as well, so don’t be surprised to see someone like Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle or Carl Edwards in the mix for the race itself. With the points so tight, the curious thing will be how these drivers outside the Championship battle will race those within it.

- Teammates will be in full play this weekend as well, from practice to the race itself. You can bet that each team will be focusing their testing and set-up methods around their respective contenders. If things get tight, to what degree will teams go to gain a spot or two if necessary for the title? Will we see drivers pulling off or giving up spots in an obvious attempt to help their teammate’s chances? And if there is something blatant, where will NASCAR come down in the shadow of the “have at it boys” policies?

PREDICTION

Again, this is racing so it is nearly impossible to predict these things. But I still think the #48 Lowes team of Jimmie Johnson has the speed and the mentality to get this done. It may not be a matter of them winning it, but of Hamlin losing it in a ball of emotion.

But if I had my druthers, I’d like those two to take each other out, get in a fist-fight and have Kevin Harvick pilot his #29 Chevy through the smoke and bring home Richard Childress’ 7th NASCAR Championship. That used to be the old #3, after all…

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Tim Richmond raced in the 1980s in NASCAR, and he was hellfire. Really, the only racer I think actually matched Dale Earnhardt in his era for pure driving talent. Handsome, stylish Ohio via Fort Lauderdale kid. Easy to like and, like I said, hell on wheels. Fast. Car control through the roof. That was Richmond.

(For modern comparisons, Poolie among others compared Kyle Busch to Tim Richmond. You get the idea. But also make him naturally cool, handsome and charming.)

Richmond came in through Indy cars having been ROTY at the Indianapolis 500. After a successful stint driving for Raymond Beadle, he was hired by Rick Hendrick to drive for his new #25 Chevy sponsored by Folgers. The car was a second team car for Hendrick, which was really kind of new thinking at the time.

I can’t think of Pocono without thinking of Richmond. Thing was, he was a killer on road courses, and Pocono, with its tirfecta of weird, flat turns and road course traits, really had a thing for him. He swept both races there in 1986 as he rattled off 7 wins. He brought the #25 home third in points and shared the Driver of the Year Award with Champion Dale Earnhardt. He was right there, on his way to racing stardom, Jeff Gordon before Jeff Gordon, the future bright and filled with certain wins and titles.

But things happen.

During the break between 1986 and 1987, Richmond took ill. By time the 1987 Daytona 500 rolled around, he had to withdraw because of reported double pneumonia. Benny Parsons took over the driving duties in the renumeraled #35 as Richmond missed the first few months of the season. He made his comeback in the June Pocono race. Remarkably, he won. He quickly followed that up the following week with a win at the now defunct Riverside road course in California.

But something was obviously wrong. Come August, he had to withdraw again and Hendrick put Benny Parsons back in the car. I remember it being really strange. I remember my dad thinking he was sick with something else, like cancer or something. Then, at the end of the season, he quit Hendrick. Just like that.

To NASCAR, this was all very suspicious. So when Richmond turned up with a new ride for the 1988 Daytona 500, NASCAR was waiting there with a cup for him to pee into. Richmond obliged, and soon after NASCAR made the announcement that Richmond had failed a drug test and would not be allowed to participate in the race. Richmond claimed it was a prescription respiratory medication he was taking, to which NASCAR played their trump card. They demanded his medical records in order to prove his innocence.

Richmond, of course, had no interest in revealing to the world he had AIDS. So he never raced again.

Back then, people were really confused about AIDS. There was a lot of ignorance. People thought it was a “gay disease”. So while Richmond probably knew very well what he had, he understandably was very protective about the truth. It wasn’t until after his death in August of 1989 that the truth about his illness was revealed to the world.

The following year, there were several news reports which called into question the authenticity of the drug tests administered by NASCAR. Dr. Forest Tennant, it is alleged, worked with NASCAR in order to “create false drug-test results in 1988 to bar Richmond from racing”. It is also alleged that Tennant worked with NASCAR to specifically develop a drug testing policy with the intent of ensnaring Richmond.

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In two short years Richmond collected a total of 9 wins for the #25 Hendrick Chevy. In fact, his win total for that car eclipses the combined total of all those who have driven the #25 in the 20 seasons since. This includes drivers like Parsons, Kenny Schrader, Ricky Craven, Jerry Nadeau, Joe Nemecheck and Brian Vickers. For all of it’s early promise, the #25 team itself has never had the storied history of its stable mates at Hendrick. It has always underperformed. Some say that there is a connection. Some say it is cursed in some way.

Personally, I don’t believe in such things. But do I have to remind you that the old #25 team is now the #88?

Like I said, synchronic strings.

SHOOTOUT UNDER A STORM MOON
Perhaps there is no better racing appetizer than the Bud Shootout at Daytona during SpeedWeeks. A short, barnburner of an event with no points on the line means no-holds-barred kinda racing, some risk taking and certainly some excitement. It used to be easy to describe this event: A race of pole winners from the previous season. No more. Like qualifying and the points system, NASCAR took something cut and dry and mucked it up to where it takes more than a few prepositions to explain it. It is now a race for the top 6 cars from each of the four manufacturers and an added 4 “wildcard” entries, one from each manufacturer. That gives us the largest field ever for the Bud Shootout: 28.

With no pre-season testing, I guess this whole format actually makes some sense. Of course, I would prefer it be pole winners and a 50-mile dash for cash like it was 30 years ago. But I understand. Times change, sponsors drive everything, and so here we are.

The race itself was emblematic of the current formula at Daytona: Highly competitive, unstable at times, partner-dependent and wreck-filled. No clear dominant driver or car ever took charge, although the usual suspects seemed to find their way to the front when they needed to. Unfortunately, the bad behavior of this car in traffic and the worsening bumps around this storied facility combined to create havoc several times, damaging or eliminating literally half the field.

The first incident of the night was perhaps the most exciting if only because of Jeff Gordon’s amazing evasive maneuvers. It was like a scene out of “Days of Thunder” as he dove low, went high, tapped the breaks, and scooted through the wrecking mess that was Joey Logano, David Regan, Robby Gordon and company. If for a moment you count this guy out, or you think he has “lost a step”, just look at how boldly and decisively he drove through the carnage.

Personally, I woulda paid $10 for some in-car video footage, and I don’t think I am alone.

Back on the track, the usual suspects started to show why they are the usual suspects. The likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards were mixing it up while behind them things were just a little bit hairy. Pit stops came under yellow, thanks to a variety of incidents including the spins of the Davids Stremme and Reutimann, the blown engine of Sorenson and a series of incidents that all seemed to involve Greg Biffle. Sometimes, it just ain’t your day, eh Bif?

In the final throwdown, it was Jamie McMurray holding the lead against a field filled with snarling Hendrick and Childress Chevrolets. How Kevin Harvick times these last lap passes at Daytona, I’ll never know, but he squirted off of turn two with a head of steam and rocketed into the lead just as the final stroke of carnage unfolded behind him, gathering up the rides of Johnson, Casey Mears, Kyle Busch and a host of others. In all, Harvick led one single lap – the one that mattered.

All in all, it seems to me that this package at a place at Daytona really creates a conveyor belt from front to back to front. It’s not a matter of what you know, or even WHO you know anymore. As Harvick proved, timing is everything. The question is how much of that timing is really in the hands of the racers, or in the hands of fate.

POLE DAY BOREDOM
Admittedly, I was not around a television for pole day. I don’t imagine I missed too much as I was relegated to listening to bits and pieces on satellite radio. Man, talk about commentators who earn their money. At big restrictor plate tracks like Daytona and Talladega, the MRN crew is charged with creating as much “fill” as possible during qualifying because the laps take 48 seconds or so to complete. I feel for those guys. It’s gotta suck finding ways to make two long laps at Daytona seem interesting. It’s right up there with rain delays.

Like many, I was curious as to how Bill Elliott would do given how fast he was in practice. Boy, what a return to glory that would have been had he taken the pole for the Daytona 500! With the Wood Brothers, no less? That would have been all over ESPN. So for those who see conspiracy in everything NASCAR does, consider how easy that would have been to do. Slip him a “good” plate, and you got Elliott on the pole and a week’s worth of stories NOT involving the NASCAR economy. But it was not to be, I guess. It’s the “Martin and Martin” show on the front row, as the Chevrolets of Martin Truex Jr. and Mark Martin will lead the field to green next Sunday. Could we have two less exciting personalities starting up front?

THE 800 POUND GORILLA
I really don’t want to spend TOO much time this season going on about the NASCAR economy in this space if I can help it. But it is impossible to avoid the topic when you see not only the empty seats, but the condition of the track itself. The asphalt is getting worse for wear. The grass in the infield is brown. even the new double yellow line which they had painted around the bottom of the track to indicate the “out of bounds” area looks like it was done last minute and half-assed. It’s these little things which concern me more than seats. Let’s face it: If watering the grass is a part of the “cost-cutting” at a company such as ISC, things are really troubling.

PAINT SCHEME NOTES
One of my favorite things about SpeedWeeks is seeing the new paint schemes for the upcoming season. I deliberately avoid looking at “paint scheme pages” during the off-season so I can get all surprised and excited like a little kid when they roll out for that first Daytona practice. A couple of things jumped out at me:

- Tony Stewart is going to be hard to find. That red is too much like the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Reed Sorenson. He’s going to have to do something to standout from that crowd, like run up front all the time.

- Joey Logano’s paint scheme, especially at a place like Daytona, harkens back to the #28 Hardee’s Chevy one Cale Yarborough campaigned 25 years ago. Not bad. The addition of white on this scheme allows “sliced bread” to separate himself a little bit from Stewart’s storied legacy.

- Does CAT ever look bad on a racecar? Jeff Burton’s new #31 looks amazing.

- While I’m hoping that A.J. Allmendinger finds a full-time sponsor for his RPM #44 Dodge, I really love seeing Petty Blue back on the track again.

- UPS has finally gone back to brown with David Regan. It looks great, especially since the bold font of the car number pops that yellow highlight really nice. I have a feeling that we’ll be seeing that car up front a bunch this year.

- Jeff Gordon’s new paint featuring the base color black quite simply is one of the most bad-ass paint schemes EVER to grace a racecar. I mean EVER.

That’s all for now. The 2009 season is here folks – let’s rev ‘em up and let ‘em go!

X

The X-Files is a sometimes weekly racing report brought to you by Racer X, who in the real world goes by the name George Zhen. You can find more of his motorsports blogs and opinion on www.Rowdy.com